The SoCon Lowdown: The last dance
Plus: Samford readies itself for an upset bid
I’ve suspended or ended a number of series in the past, and I usually don’t make much of a statement on it when I do. External stress and personal burnout are both bound to play a part in the decision to move on from a project, and both make it difficult to wrap things up cleanly—if I don’t have the time or motivation to keep writing full entries, explaining why is often even more daunting.
That being said, nothing I’ve considered ending1 has had an audience as big as The SoCon Lowdown, and I want to at least provide some encouragement for the future of this series. I certainly don’t plan on fully ending this series, but I do want to reevaluate the workload I’m taking on in the college football and basketball seasons, and the newsletter side of TSL might not continue as a result.
This is probably, in some sense, our last dance—at least in the current format of this series. As usual, we’ll be following Samford’s run in the postseason (and only their run, as they’re the only SoCon team playing on), however far it goes. When it ends, there’ll be one last post covering the end of the season for all ten teams, and potentially giving some more detail on how I’ll be approaching next season.
I don’t need to know what’s coming next to say this, though: covering the Southern Conference over the past three years has been a hell of a ride, and to everyone who’s followed along this far, I’m immensely grateful to you all for listening. However this series changes and continues in the future, I’m excited to see where we’ll go from here.
In the meantime, though, the SoCon season isn’t quite over yet. After completing their domination of the conference with a championship in Asheville, the Samford Bulldogs are headed to their first NCAA tournament since 2000, seeking their first ever win in March Madness. While it’s another 13-vs-4 matchup in the first round for the SoCon, this year’s upset bid is about as different from last year’s as possible.
The glacial pace of a typical Virginia game was on full display in the First Four on Tuesday, as they went on a nine-minute scoring drought to end the first half and ended up losing to Colorado State 67-42. That’s what Furman was up against last year, and they took full advantage to stun the Cavaliers for their first NCAAT victory since 1974. Kansas, by contrast, plays with a top-100 tempo and is almost as strong on offense as they are on defense. How do you attack a team like that if you’re Samford?
Let’s start with the Bulldogs’ defense, which is their biggest concern going into the tournament. Of course, this team also plays with a rapid tempo, averaging the twelfth-most possessions per game in D1, but they’d struggle to stop opponents from scoring even if they didn’t. There’s considerable upside and downside to the unit; its biggest strength is that it can force a ton of turnovers (21.7% of possessions, 18th nationally), its biggest weakness that it can allow a ton of offensive rebounds (32.0%, 315th). Neither is a particularly exceptional attribute for a Kansas offense that mainly relies on using its size and strength inside to score in the paint, but struggles to come down with the ball after a miss (25.3% offensive rebound rate, 291st).
About that size and strength, though…we’ve gotta talk about two major injuries that have affected the Jayhawks down the stretch. Seven players have been on the court for at least 30% of KU’s minutes this season; five are between 6’2” and 6’7”, freshman Johnny Furphy stands 6’9”, but senior Hunter Dickinson towers over the rest of the roster at 7’2”. Samford can compete with the rest vertically—Achor Achor (6’9”) will get shots inside without issue, while Jaden Campbell (6’5”) and Rylan Jones (6’0”) should be able to make trouble outside the arc. It’s almost completely up to Dickinson to try and shut down Achor…and he comes into this game just twelve days removed from dislocating his shoulder on March 9. While he’s expected to play without limitations tonight, it’ll be worth keeping an eye on him to see how effective he can be.
Even more significant is the absence of the Jayhawks’ next-tallest senior, Kevin McCullar (6’7”), who was expected to join Furphy in limiting Campbell and Jones at the perimeter. The Bulldogs are an extremely deep team in three-point shooting, as ten different players on the roster shot at least 40 attempts from distance, with five of them making well over 40% of those shots. With McCullar out for the tournament with a knee injury, Samford’s biggest mismatch against Kansas gets a lot bigger, and a hot shooting performance could make quick runs and comebacks a constant threat from the Bulldogs.
To pull off the upset, Samford needs to exacerbate that three-point advantage as much as possible by holding down the Jayhawks’ perimeter offense, too. KU enters this game following 3-for-21 and 3-for-20 performances from distance in back-to-back blowout losses against Houston and Cincinnati, the latest in a long stretch of three-point struggles amid Dickinson and McCullar’s injury recoveries. Getting one of those pieces back will help, but Samford certainly has the upside and size to keep limiting Kansas outside. It’s not too hard to see the Bulldogs doubling or even tripling the Jayhawks’ three-point percentage, and if they can manage that, it’s easy to see them pulling off the SoCon’s second tournament upset in as many years.
Of my own volition, anyway. Seventh Day Adventure was the most popular series I ran when it was active, but it ending was mostly a consequence of Football Outsiders shutting down.