In dire need of leadership, Northwestern turns to David Braun

Note: rankings for this series are set by TERSE, a D1 college football metric designed to imitate human rankings. Preseason TERSE is now finalized, so rankings on this post are official.

Content warning: this article briefly discusses sexual assault allegations in its third paragraph.

I’ve used the phrase “arguably the most difficult job of any new coach”, or something like it, in a number of previews this season. It applies to everyone from Deion Sanders, whose Colorado Buffaloes are ranked #138 in D1 and by far the lowest of the teams with new HCs, to Ryan Arnett, whose Mississippi State Bulldogs stand #17 and lead the pack going into 2023. And, of course, it applies to everyone in between—those inheriting a mess (like Brian Newberry at Navy), those who must meet daunting expectations (like Jeff Brohm at Louisville), and those who just have ruinous roster situations (like Biff Poggi at Charlotte). Turns out, being a college football coach is a pretty tough gig.

That all being said, I think if you asked people to give one answer as to the new coach with the odds stacked most heavily against him, you’d get a fairly firm consensus answer of David Braun. Eight months ago, Braun was North Dakota State’s defensive coordinator; then he was hired by Northwestern, propelling him into the center of an imminent scandal that led to the Wildcats shoving him into the HC role under two months before the start of the season.

To detail everything that’s going on with regard to Pat Fitzgerald, his lingering supporters in the athletic department, and the mounting legal case against Northwestern would leave us no room to address Braun himself, so I’ll be brief. In short, numerous athletes at the university have made serious accusations that a culture of abusive hazing, up to and including sexual assault, has existed at Northwestern since the end of Randy Walker’s tenure as HC and throughout Fitzgerald’s. After being briefly suspended, Fitzgerald was fired in early July and Braun was appointed the Wildcats’ interim coach, in large part due to his lack of previous association with the program before arriving in January.

Of course, Northwestern is well past the point of having any particular goals it expects Braun to meet, under the circumstances. For the most part, football is an afterthought right now, with the steadily rising count of lawsuits against the university a much more pressing issue. Selecting somebody within the program who has nothing to do with this mess and letting the dumpster fire burn for a season is the only reasonable decision.

That’s from the Wildcats’ perspective, though. From Braun’s, and from what remains of the team’s, making something of this year—as much of a disaster as it is before it even begins—is the only thing they can really do. Recognizing this, Northwestern later hired Birmingham Stallions coach Skip Holtz (22 seasons of college HC experience) as a temporary special assistant to Braun. It’s a good move, considering the program’s foundations have been destroyed so completely that even the fundamentals of how to run it are in question. Braun (who has never been a head coach at any level) doesn’t have the option of constantly asking Fitzgerald for clarification and advice on practice routines and other basics. As for improving on what was already one of the worst teams in FBS last year, especially with eleven outbound transfers and unsurprising losses in an already-miserable recruiting class? It’s neither an expectation nor a realistic possibility.

I debated whether to write this preview because, after all, Braun is not the new guy. Northwestern’s first non-interim coach after Fitzgerald remains undetermined, and barring a miracle turnaround in his year at the helm, the discussion probably won’t involve Braun in any capacity. He certainly wouldn’t expect it to—ultimately, he’s in this position because the Wildcats have no better option, needing somebody who at least has a basic grasp of how the program operates without being tied to the emerging scandal.

But as little attention as the college football world will pay to Northwestern football this season, aside from the occasional sympathetic remarks on how bad it’s likely to be, this team still matters to the people playing and coaching for it. The possibility of not playing the season entirely would be an extremely unusual step, but it’s one that programs have taken in the recent past during COVID-19, and one that the Wildcats surely considered then. If they truly believed there was nothing to be gained from fielding a team this year, which they surely couldn’t be blamed for, one must imagine they would at least have considered cancelling their season. The program is in such a state that even fielding a remotely competent roster represents a massive amount of effort at a time when the Northwestern athletic department is stretched as thin as it’s ever been.

The Wildcats have decided to try anyway. Braun has decided to try, stepping into a role he has little preparation for which is made even more difficult by the firestorm surrounding the program right now. He would have every reason to tell Northwestern they need to find somebody else or bail, especially considering his wife was pregnant with their third child during this fiasco.

But, despite being a generation younger than Fitzgerald, he recognizes something his predecessor seemed to disregard. If the disgraceful, abusive culture which has persisted at Northwestern for decades is to be eradicated, the program needs leadership. The players, some of whom have certainly participated in hazing rituals, others of whom have been victims in them, need leadership. If that job didn’t fall to Braun, it would fall to somebody else, and few are as well equipped to navigate the minefield of Northwestern football right now.

Is he a good football coach? He may well be—his last defense at NDSU finished among the FCS top ten in points allowed per game—but that’s not really what matters here, is it? What the Wildcats need more than anything isn’t a good coach; they need a good person. After seventeen years under a man who, it’s become clear, did not meet that mark, David Braun is a breath of fresh air.

The Last Five Years

Before Fitzgerald’s suspension and firing, the main point of interest about Northwestern going into 2023 was whether they could avoid a third consecutive down year. The Wildcats haven’t finished anywhere other than first or last in the Big Ten West since 2017, but the perception that Northwestern’s success in 2020 was mostly due to handling COVID-19 well raised serious questions about how long of a leash Fitzgerald had, even given his legendary status at the school. Of course, that’s all irrelevant at this point—aside from the dismal roster, which remains a very immediate on-field problem for Braun.

2022 and 2023

Dreams of a rebound season were raised when Northwestern won the marquee Week 0 game¹, upending Nebraska 31-28 and setting the final stage of Scott Frost’s lengthy collapse into motion. Then the Wildcats lost to Duke, lost to Southern Illinois, lost to Miami-Ohio, and finished the season losing every last one of their eight remaining conference games. In six of their eight games in October and November, they failed to reach double digits; in the same span, they only totaled 100 yards both passing and rushing twice. They didn’t score a touchdown through the air in the entire last month of the season, and they finished with all of two players reaching 400 yards from scrimmage. It was ugly, particularly on offense, but pretty much everywhere.

There are some pieces to work with, at least. Transfer Ben Bryant looks to have won the starting QB job, a role he filled well at Eastern Michigan in 2021 (7.6 Y/A, 14 TD, 7 INT) and Cincinnati in 2022 (7.8 Y/A, 21 TD, 7 INT). He threw multiple picks just twice in those two full seasons, which Northwestern did in nearly half of its games last year. Really, though, the biggest point in this team’s favor is simply regression to the mean. It’s still going to be very bad in all but the most fantastical scenarios, but for a P5 team to be as bad as they were last season requires some horrendous luck on top of poor play. All else being equal, their fortunes should improve somewhat.

The Next Five Years

Do you think Braun is still here in 2024? Oh, sure, he definitely is if he somehow manages to piece together a team that even comes close to a bowl, but let’s suppose the overwhelming likelihood that he doesn’t. If Northwestern finishes something like 2-10 and the AD hires a new coach, would Braun be given his DC job back for the next season?

You would hope so, but interim coach tends to be a rather thankless role. Whoever the Wildcats might hire would want to install their own staff, and while Braun has been a strong defensive coordinator at the lower ranks, he never had a chance to prove himself in that role with Northwestern before everything fell apart. Remember, a coach in a very similar situation to this last year—Bryant Vincent, who had served as UAB’s offensive coordinator since 2018 and stepped in for an ailing Bill Clark in June—performed above expectations and wasn’t asked to stay on in any capacity.

Assuming this position means a permanent, possibly ruinous, shakeup to Braun’s future prospects as a coach. He knows that; it’s a drawback of the job he’s accepted, like so much else he’s taken on. But in the same way Northwestern didn’t choose him because of his coaching accolades, Braun didn’t accept the offer to get ahead in the coaching carousel. He did so because he understands what the Wildcats need right now: delicacy, leadership, and a staying hand amid one of the darkest chapters in the university’s history. That, for as long as Northwestern needs him, is what he can provide.

1. An insult to the word “marquee”, frankly, but hey, we all watched it…if only out of morbid curiosity.