Tulsa is a fascinating choice for coveted coordinator Kevin Wilson

Note: rankings for this series are set by TERSE, a D1 college football metric designed to imitate human rankings. These will shift as the offseason goes on, with more transfer data becoming available over time.

Many coaching hires are fascinating because they raise the question of why a certain program would choose a candidate—often disregarding, say, a lack of regional ties, offensive and defensive versatility, history above the coordinator level, or some other desirable quality. One could frame Tulsa’s decision to hire Kevin Wilson by any of these standards, given that they are all things he lacks. A nine-year stint in Oklahoma gives him some local history, but he’s been in the Big Ten for over a decade and either the midwest or southeast for the rest of his 61 years as an athlete and coach. He’s always been a good offensive coordinator, but doubt over his ability to manage a defense is justifiable. Look no further than his lone college coaching stint at Indiana, where the Hoosiers rank below #100 in points allowed per game for five of his six seasons.

All of these qualms, however, are quite reasonably brushed aside by a prevailing truth: Wilson is really good at calling an offense, never better than in his recent run at Ohio State, and he demonstrated interest in Tulsa, which hasn’t run an offense better than 50th nationally in seven years. Who cares if his résumé isn’t absolutely flawless? For a candidate this good to take Tulsa’s offer was a win.

This raises the opposite question, of course; it makes sense that the Golden Hurricane wanted Wilson, but why did he want them? There was no shortage of HC positions open in the 2022 coaching carousel, particularly in the midwest—it’s at least a little surprising that such a decorated coordinator wasn’t in the mix as teams like Wisconsin, Cincinnati, Purdue, Louisville, and Nebraska made changes. Tulsa isn’t a terrible fit, but Wilson seems a little above their pay grade, even with his previous struggles at Indiana.

Taking it from his perspective, the most attractive thing about this job is its unrealized upside. Five of the Golden Hurricane’s last six coaches won at least nine games here at some point, which is quite a feat considering most of them never made a name for themselves elsewhere. David Rader is now a state senator, Steve Kragthorpe crashed and burned at Louisville, Todd Graham has been a fiasco everywhere he’s gone, Bill Blankenship ended up in high school football, and Philip Montgomery…well, he doesn’t seem likely to break this streak, does he?

For those keeping score at home, four of those five coaches didn’t have a single winning season in college football after leaving Tulsa. In other words, the Hurricane have won an awful lot for a team that hasn’t actually hired anybody particularly good (unless you count Graham). It doesn’t take a great logical leap to suggest that, hey, maybe they could find some sustained success and establish themselves as a titan of the new AAC, if they could only find a solid coach.

That’s where Wilson comes in, and it’s probably part of what drew him to the job. Being better than those who have gone before isn’t a particularly high bar, and it’s one he could easily surpass if his bona fides as a coordinator are anything to go by. It may seem farfetched to imagine Tulsa settling in as a frontrunner in this recalibrating conference, even with some of the top competition gone, but it’d be right in line with the revitalization of next-door neighbor SMU. A career arc like the one Sonny Dykes has gone on over the last five seasons looks pretty appealing, doesn’t it?

Not that being the next Dykes is easy—2022 showed us that he’s a very good, and probably still underrated, head coach—but it’s certainly possible. SMU leapt into a crowded fray in which Cincinnati, UCF, and Houston were still frequent conference title contenders; the way is clearer for the Hurricane. Why not them?

Okay, yes, because everybody in the American sees this opportunity and is throwing resources at football in a bid to capitalize. But somebody’s going to win this arms race, and having one of the best offensive minds in the sport gives Tulsa a great head start. Investment is the next step…and that’s where Wilson’s decision becomes a little head-scratching again.

Tulsa isn’t on SMU’s level when it comes to financial availability, but they do all right—their $1.08 million endowment is the third-largest in the conference, and the Mustangs and Green Wave ahead of them are spending freely. The Hurricane, meanwhile, haven’t made a major facilities update since 2008, and they’ve lagged behind competitors for years. It’s arguably a major reason nobody has been able to sustain much success here; good recruiting is difficult to sustain with only halfhearted commitment to running a modern program, which is all Tulsa has given.

Maybe Wilson believes that winning will convince the athletic department to buy in. Maybe he expects an attractive P5 offer to come down before the lack of university support catches up with him. Or maybe we’re overthinking all of this, and he just picked Tulsa because he thinks he can do better here than elsewhere. Who’s to say? The future is murky for the Golden Hurricane, but there are some really exciting possibilities if Wilson pans out and facility upgrades are finally forthcoming. It’s not hard to believe that in a shifting AAC landscape, they could come out on top.

The Last Five Years

Tulsa was all set to fire Philip Montgomery at some point early in 2020, fresh off of three straight losing seasons and last-place divisional finishes. Then he put the fear of God into #11 Oklahoma State, stunned #11 UCF in the Bounce House, went undefeated in conference play, and nearly dealt Cincinnati their first loss in the AAC title game. The price of that one good year was two more largely wasted ones before a lackluster 2022 finally allowed Tulsa to move on. That one-off season was a lot of fun, but it’s still pretty rough for a year like that to set a program back several.

2022 and 2023

Still, Tulsa did the responsible thing and waited until Montgomery looked like his usual underachieving self, astutely avoiding the possibility of poisoning the job for prospective hires. The 2022 team was probably better than its 5-7 record, putting up a good fight against Ole Miss, Cincinnati, and Tulane, but it also managed to give up 53 points to Navy. This wasn’t going anywhere, and the Hurricane recognized that without the delay they’d gone through previously.

Wilson doesn’t inherit a lot, despite the missed potential last season. Fifteen starters are lost from 2022, and while the transfer additions and lack of injuries are positive signs, not much should be expected in his first season. More worryingly, defensive coordinator Matt Guerrieri bailed to Indiana in the middle of spring practice, leaving a side of the ball that’s already not Wilson’s strong suit in lack of a leader. They still haven’t found a replacement, and while they’ve got time to look, the market can’t be very good right now. It might be a long fall in Tulsa.

The Next Five Years

I’ll be honest: Kevin Wilson does not fill me with the excitement of some of 2022’s other coaching hires. It’s nothing against him—he’s perhaps the most talented coordinator in college football today, and I do think he could do good things with the Hurricane—but he’s just not a particularly invigorating hire. Even his offenses aren’t particularly innovative; they just execute at the highest level in the country, turning five-star recruits into five-star players with ruthless efficiency. That is by no means easy, but leading the nation in scoring isn’t that hard when you have CJ Stroud, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Garret Wilson, Chris Olave, TreVeyon Henderson, and Miyan Williams at your disposal.

Tulsa is going to require something a little more inventive. The potential for a perennial conference titan is there, but it’s a long way from reality. And while the Hurricane are never going to supply Wilson with the wealth of talent he had in Columbus, they need to give him something to work with on the recruiting front. Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas A&M are all in a pretty dismal state; there’s never been a better time to strike it rich in the heart of the south.

It’s a hire that could go brilliantly or fail terribly. In a few year’s time, Wilson could be riding high, already moving on, or kicked to the curb. Tulsa could find itself building a case for the next bout of realignment or fighting to end up in the best remains of a dissolving AAC. In short, it’s college football—always unpredictable, often inexplicable, but endlessly entertaining no matter how it goes.