The SoCon Lowdown: VMI botches a golden opportunity, Glover and Smith play second fiddle, and UNCG-ETSU closes the regular season
February 27, 2022
The chaos of one final SoCon Saturday has come and gone, though one more game (UNCG-ETSU later today) has yet to be played. Furman took care of business in the 1:00 game, blowing out rival The Citadel to clinch the second seed in next weekend's conference tournament, but chaos abounded in the later games. Chattanooga pulled away from a red-hot Samford to muddy the middle of the standings, which provided a clear path for VMI to win and steal the three seed—but the Keydets came out flat against dead-last Western Carolina and lost. Meanwhile, Mercer put up a tough fight against Wofford in a battle to escape the play-in tournament, but the Terriers managed a late run to save their spot and relegate the Bears to the first round.
Later today, UNC-Greensboro and East Tennessee State will battle in a game that will settle whether UNCG finishes fourth or sixth. (Because The Citadel lost yesterday, ETSU's superior record against second-overall Furman has clinched the eight seed for them regardless of their result in this game.) For the most part, though, the tournament is already set, so without further ado, here's the projected bracket:
First Round
Game 1: #8 East Tennessee State vs #9 The Citadel
Game 2: #7 Mercer vs #10 Western Carolina
Quarterfinals
Game 3: #1 Chattanooga vs Game 1 winner
Game 4: #4 UNCG vs #5 Wofford (if UNCG wins today) or #4 Wofford vs #5 VMI (if UNCG loses today)
Game 5: #2 Furman vs Game 2 winner
Game 6: #3 Samford vs #6 VMI (if UNCG wins today) or #3 Samford vs #6 UNCG (if UNCG loses today)
Semifinals
Game 7: Game 3 winner vs Game 4 winner
Game 8: Game 5 winner vs Game 6 winner
Final
Game 9: Game 7 winner vs Game 8 winner
Furman 94
The Citadel 59
It would appear Furman (20-11, 12-6, #2) has emerged from their slump more or less intact, and they secured the second seed by thoroughly crushing The Citadel (12-17, 6-12, #9) on the road. February has not been entirely kind to the Paladins; they've taken dispiriting losses to UNCG and ETSU, in the process losing the regular-season title and therefore earning the more dangerous quarterfinal among the top two, which is likely to pit them against seven-seed Mercer. Nevertheless, the Bears shouldn't scare them much if they continue on their recent form; of more concern is a likely semifinal showdown with Samford, who they lost to just last Wednesday.
Looking ahead to the tournament, Furman gave their starters plenty of rest, with Mike Bothwell's 30 minutes leading the team and seven players coming off the bench. With 17 points, Bothwell also helped lead the Paladins' high-scoring performance alongside a very impressive Alex Hunter (20 points, 6 assists) and Marcus Foster (15 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists). Both have played big roles for the Paladins down the stretch as regular stars Jalen Slawson and Conley Garrison have dipped into inconsistency. As for The Citadel, Hayden Brown racked up 17 points and 18 rebounds, more or less securing his rebounds-per-game crown over VMI's Jake Stephens (9.4 to 9.2).
Samford 57
Chattanooga 70
In a game that pitted the SoCon's best team against its hottest, and its longstanding Player of the Year frontrunner against his top challenger, it's a bit disappointing that things didn't end in as dramatic fashion as some of the Bulldogs' recent exploits. What's more, Ques Glover (12 points) and Malachi Smith (12 points, 8 rebounds) both had unremarkable performances, as Jermaine Marshall (17 points, 8 rebounds) took the lead for Samford (20-10, 10-8, #3) and Darius Banks (16 points, 7 rebounds) showed out on senior day for Chattanooga (24-7, 14-4, #1).
It's become increasingly obvious that Chattanooga, Furman, and Samford are on another level heading into the SoCon Tournament, and while chaos is always a possibility, it seems likely that the champion will be one of the top three. And if you had to pick against one of them, your answer might very recently have been the Mocs, who dropped home games against unremarkable UNCG and VMI squads last week. Chattanooga may have emerged with the regular-season title, but with only must-win games ahead, a convincing victory over the impressive Bulldogs could prove important despite the lack of seeding implications.
VMI 73
Western Carolina 82
If there's been a theme in the SoCon this season, it's 'missed opportunities'. Chattanooga and Furman both stumbled over several less-than-imposing opponents in the final month, fumbling away chances to produce a clear #1 claim. Samford could've taken advantage and not just surged into third, but claimed second or even first if they'd just taken care of business against The Citadel, but the other Bulldogs beat them once and nearly repeated the feat later. And further down the standings, the middle of the pack (Mercer, UNCG, VMI, and Wofford) have each gotten plenty a chance to assert themselves and escape the danger of playing in the first round, but each have struggled to make a clear stand.
But perhaps no missed opportunity hurts more than this one. For a while earlier in February, it looked like VMI (16-14, 9-9, #5/#6) was going to be the team that pulled away. The Keydets won four in a row over ETSU, UNCG, WCU, and Mercer to reach 8-5, but since that run, they've finished 1-4, losing to The Citadel and now to Western Carolina (11-20, 5-13, #10) in embarrassing fashion. And VMI didn't just drop a critical game against the worst team in the conference; they were completely run off the court. The Keydets went on a five-minute drought in the first half, during which time the Catamounts jumped out to a 38-18 lead. VMI only briefly came within double digits later on, and their hopes of soaring into third evaporated.
Mercer 67
Wofford 74
VMI isn't the only contender to lose to Western Carolina and The Citadel in the final month of the season; Mercer (15-16, 8-10, #7) also found themselves struggling with the SoCon's bottom-feeders recently. Combined with those upsets, this loss stretched their losing streak to three and landed them in seventh, setting up a repeat meeting with WCU this Friday. Had the Bears won, they could've taken advantage of the carnage to escape the play-in spot, and for a while it did seem they'd come up with a key victory. Mercer led 34-25 at halftime, but their offence came out cold and didn't score for the first 4:33 of the second half, which gave Wofford (18-12, 10-8, #4/#5) the chance to reclaim a lead, whereafter the Bears never held it again.
The Bears made it a close game late, pulling within five with 1:20 to go, but the Terriers were able to complete the win thanks to the brilliant efforts of BJ Mack and Max Klesmit. For the final 11:04 of the second half, in which Wofford scored some 26 points and clinched a first-round bye, Mack and Klesmit were the only players to score for the Terriers, completing 26- and 21-point performances respectively. Nobody else scored so much as ten points for Wofford, but it was enough to win—and to avoid a quarterfinal meeting with any of the top three, to boot.
East Tennessee State at UNC-Greensboro (-3.5)
4:00 PM (CBSSN)
Closing out the SoCon regular season, UNC-Greensboro (17-12, 9-8, #4/#6) will look to avoid facing Samford in their first playoff game, as they welcome East Tennessee State (14-16, 6-11, #8). The Spartans are perhaps the most intriguing team entering the tournament; they've dropped their fair share of bewildering no-shows, like any mid-table team in this league, but they've also beaten the conference's top two this month despite losing 14+ turnovers in both games. All told, they've been more hot than not lately, winning five of their last seven and giving Samford a close fight, but it's fair to say they're something of an unknown quantity.
It's tempting to say ETSU is the opposite, what with their bound-for-a-play-in status and their ongoing 2-8 slump. But the Buccaneers showed signs of life when facing the top three down the stretch: on February 7 they stunned Furman, on February 12 they nearly beat Samford, and on February 23 they made at least a minor comeback bid against Chattanooga. It's not much, but it's not nothing, and despite their recent losses, they certainly have the potential to beat UNCG if the Spartans don't play their best. Wofford and VMI will be watching anxiously to see if the Bucs can pull an upset as the regular season comes to a close.