The SoCon Lowdown: The plot thickens with a three-way tie at the top
Plus: Dwight Perry's brilliance, Jake Stephens' continued absence, and Ed Conroy's rough return
The SoCon, as you’ve certainly gathered if you followed this column, can be a very odd conference. Take Saturday’s four-game slate, which stood out ahead of time for two bewildering lines. In one of the early games, conference leader Samford took its 8-1 record to a deeply inconsistent Wofford team, one which they’d beaten by 25 without Ques Glover earlier in January. Vegas’ evaluation: Bulldogs by a scant 1.5 points. Shortly after, Chattanooga took a trip down to ETSU, playing their third game without theretofore-SoCon POTY frontrunner Jake Stephens; in the first, those same Buccaneers walloped them 78-62. Vegas saw: the Mocs by 1.5, somehow. None of it made sense; had the oddsmakers simply forgotten recent history, or the key absences that had shaped these teams’ seasons?
Of course, when you try to make a fool of the books, they tend to make a fool of you. The Terriers held on for an 85-77 win despite a late run from Samford, while Chattanooga hit more than half their three-point shots and downed the Bucs 73-64. Those results did more than just vindicate Vegas—they also threw a wrench in the conference standings, which now feature two truly delightful tangles. At the top, Furman, Samford, and UNCG are all square on 8-2 records, with the Paladins currently clinging to the league lead thanks to back-to-back wins over the other contenders. A step down, no less than six teams—more than half the SoCon!—stand at 5-5 (WCU and Wofford) or 4-6 (Mercer, ETSU, The Citadel, and Chattanooga). VMI, 0-10 and trying to avoid the first winless conference record in program history, is…also here.
February starts tomorrow. Just over a month later, these ten teams will battle in Asheville for a spot in the NCAA tournament. But who will have the upper hand when March arrives? That’s anybody’s guess, and the way these muddled standings settle by the end of the regular season is only one piece of the puzzle.
There’s no telling how long it’ll last, of course, but Furman climbing back into first—on a brilliant week with an overtime win over Samford and a decisive domination at UNCG—feels like a watershed moment in the SoCon title chase. Depth may be the thing that sets the Paladins apart as they try to snap their long tournament drought, with Jalen Slawson, Mike Bothwell, JP Pegues, Marcus Foster, and emergent piece Alex Williams all capable of scoring double-digits with some reliability. The defense held down a high-powered Samford attack capably and completely stifled UNCG, solidifying this team as the most complete (for the moment) in the free-for-all at the top of the conference.
The Spartans remain in fine position to snag, at worst, the #3 seed in the SoCon tournament. But if Furman and Samford can steer clear of upsets moving forward, UNCG will be kicking themselves for missing their shot in home duels with both of the other top contenders. The marquee road win over the Paladins keeps them in play to avoid being crushed by tiebreakers, but they probably have the toughest remaining path of the top three down the stretch, given the way they’ve handled their season so far. Their mid-February visit to Samford, one of two remaining games between that trio, looms large, but they have to walk a tightrope against other dangerous opponents to stay in the hunt.
I mentioned last week that the return of a strong player to an overperforming roster can mess with the chemistry, even when it’s a clear improvement on paper, and praised Samford for avoiding that problem in Ques Glover’s return against WCU. Well…all right, I may have been a bit hasty. The Bulldogs battle Furman into overtime and took a perfectly respectable loss on the road, but the hangover led to a stunning defeat at the hands of Wofford, one which the Terriers led for the last 30 minutes straight. Glover’s return did bring to the fore one of the Bulldogs’ biggest issues, exacerbated by this lineup change: foul trouble, which plagued them against both Furman (five players with 3+ fouls) and Samford (six players). There’s still a lot to play for, especially with both the Spartans and the Paladins having to face them in the daunting Pete Hanna Center, but they have work to do.
Speaking of Wofford, let’s give them their flowers for a very strong week that also featured a road win over Chattanooga. It’s been a bumpy road for Dwight Perry since he took over from Jay McAuley in early December, but he’s done a remarkable job under the circumstances to put the Terriers in the running for a top-five finish. The monumental win at Texas A&M earlier this season was a proof of concept for what they could do with a tournament spot, but knocking off 8-1 Samford is just as key to demonstrate that they can make serious noise in Asheville. It’s a long way from here to the coveted #4 and #5 seeds that avoid a quarterfinal matchup with the top three, but Wofford has clearly established itself as a force to be reckoned with.
The Terriers have put together a strong run of form since losing to WCU two weeks ago. Not so the Catamounts, who dropped games to Samford (understandable) and The Citadel (bewildering) before eking out a 71-65 win at moribund VMI. As it stands, they’re still barely clinging on to the last top-five seed, but things are looking rather grim if they can’t engineer a reversal of fortune like the three-game winning streak early in SoCon play. Aside from a season-ending home date with the Keydets, nothing will come easily down the stretch, and the Catamounts’ direly lacking depth is showing more as the season wears on.
An 18-point home loss to a middling ETSU team did raise the question of how bad things could get without Jake Stephens. The good news: probably not that bad, as the Mocs demonstrated by bouncing back to beat the rival Bucs on the road this week. Metrics will naturally have a rosier outlook than humans given the factor Stephens’ absence plays, but after a visit to Furman tomorrow, Chattanooga is favored by Torvik in six straight games before a close season-ending visit to Wofford. Contributions from a deep bench, like Khristion Courseault’s 3-for-6 showing beyond the arc against ETSU, will be key if the Mocs are to take advantage and put themselves in position for a conference tournament run.
Rather quietly, Mercer has overcome an 0-5 start to conference play and landed itself squarely in the scrum for fourth place. The Bears haven’t necessarily been convincing lately—they let ETSU take them to overtime with a 6:08 scoring drought to end regulation, then went back and forth with The Citadel most of the way—but they’re banking wins in a crucial run against the SoCon’s more beatable teams, and that’s all they need right now. The rest of the way is daunting, but Mercer’s in a much better position than they were a couple weeks back.
As well as Chattanooga’s win reflects on them, it also reflects rather poorly on East Tennessee State. The Bucs could be a much better team than they have been, but they seem incapable of stringing success together and getting a run going; they still haven’t won so much as three games in a row this season. Visits to all of the top three still await, and of the teams mired in this 5-5/4-6 pack, ETSU seems by far the likeliest to end up as one of the three who’ll join VMI in the first round.
The Citadel is also in poor position, especially with a demoralizing last-second loss to Chicago State (which is, hey, 7-17!) on Monday night. They’ve looked dead in the water ever since a shocker over Chattanooga to open conference play, only beating a WCU team of dubious quality and VMI. They should grab one more win against the Keydets this week, but beyond that, they could very well lose out—per Torvik, their best remaining chance at a victory is at home, against the Wofford team that just stunned league-leading Samford. Much like ETSU, momentum just hasn’t been there for a team that hoped to do more with its senior-heavy roster.
It’s an unpleasant topic, but we have to face it sooner or later: where can VMI get a win and avoid a winless season in SoCon play? Going on the road to do so against The Citadel, despite the fact that they couldn’t defend home court against Chicago State, seems like a tall order. None of the remaining opponents at Cameron Hall—Furman, Chattanooga, Samford, and Wofford—seem like great targets, though the Mocs might be vulnerable if Stephens hasn’t returned in a couple weeks’ time. The best opportunity might actually be in the SoCon tournament, when the Keydets will be at a neutral site facing a bottom-four team that probably finished the season on a losing skid. The odds still say they should win somewhere, but they’re running out of chances.
Around the former SoCon…
Clemson held firm atop the ACC, moving to 10-1 in conference play by rolling Georgia Tech and surviving a scare from Florida State.
Duke took a tough road loss to Virginia Tech, but bounced back by doubling up Georgia Tech in one of their most complete showings this season.
Elon stunned Drexel 72-58, moving to 3-19 and leaving D1 with no teams still winless in D1 play.
Maryland picked up a pair of key wins in Big Ten play, defending home court against Wisconsin and Nebraska.
Carrying a 1-7 conference record into the Big 12/SEC Challenge, Mississippi State pulled off a remarkable overtime win over #11 TCU.
North Carolina rose to 7-3 in conference play, stretching their winning streak to four by fending off Syracuse on the road.
NC State bounced back from a loss to UNC by outlasting Notre Dame and Wake Forest in one-score games, nipping at the Tar Heels’ heels with a 7-4 ACC record.
Tennessee used dominant home wins over Georgia (70-41) and #10 Texas (82-71) to improve to 18-3 and jump to #2 in Monday’s AP Poll.
Facing single-digit-percentage winning odds against Wichita State, Tulane rallied down the stretch and shocked the Shockers with three late FTs for a 67-66 win.
Virginia won their sixth and seventh games on the trot, keeping them firmly in the hunt for a #1 seed ahead of a tough stretch run in the ACC.
Virginia Tech eked out a nailbiting win over Duke and added another over Syracuse, snapping a losing streak and returning to the bracket conversation.
Like Mississippi State, West Virginia also bolstered its resume in the Big 12/SEC Challenge, adding a win over Auburn for their third in four games.
North Georgia took reigning national champions Kentucky down to the wire in rifle, ultimately falling 4667-4620 in Lexington. Wofford women’s basketball swept a southern swing through Mercer and Samford for the first time in program history, tying the Bulldogs for the SoCon lead at 5-2. Mercer, Samford, Wofford, Furman, and Chattanooga were all named D1 all-academic teams in both men’s and women’s cross country by the U.S. Track & Field and Cross Country Coaches Association (USTFCCCA for short).