March 5, 2022
The Citadel is moving on! Facing an East Tennessee State team that had thoroughly beaten them in late February, the Bulldogs pulled off an opening-round upset behind a 27-point day from fifth-year veteran Hayden Brown, advancing to take on top-seeded Chattanooga in the quarterfinals tomorrow. Plus, Mercer ran away with a dominant win over Western Carolina in the other semifinal, setting themselves up for a showdown with Furman.
#9 The Citadel 84, #8 East Tennessee State 76 (OT)
The simplest way to summarise this loss: East Tennessee State (15-17, 7-12) didn't do enough on offence (especially in three-point shooting, where they shot 5-for-27) and had no defence to compensate. The Buccaneers didn't bring a lot of depth to this game—though thankfully, they did bring more than the six players they finished the regular season with, which would become important when Ty Brewer and David Sloan both fouled out late in the game. But depth was never going to be a major problem against The Citadel (13-17, 7-12), which only gives major playing time to about seven players (only four of whom are true top-level starters).
The Bulldogs did get an excellent performance out of their starting lineup all around: Hayden Brown scored 27 points and added 17 rebounds in a career performance, Tyler Moffe and Jason Roche both hit three from beyond the arc and scored 22 and 14, David Maynard racked up 12 points in 23 minutes, and Stephen Clark pulled in 10 rebounds and 8 assists to nearly record the unorthodox one-point double-double. ETSU was right there with The Citadel, though, with five players on the floor for 39 or more minutes and all four scoring 11+ points. But a few extra offensive rebounds and a couple fewer turnovers weren't enough to overcome their dismal shooting, though they made a valiant comeback attempt to send the game to overtime before the Bulldogs pulled away.
It's a very encouraging win for The Citadel, which has actually pieced together a decently capable lineup and could return a lot of pieces next season, including the SoCon Freshman of the Year. In the immediate term, though, they've got a much taller task on their hands to upset 24-7 Chattanooga, who blew them out in both regular-season meetings. History didn't repeat itself yesterday; can the Bulldogs pull off another surprise?
#7 Mercer 81, #10 Western Carolina 53
Speaking of history not repeating, Mercer (16-16, 9-10) appears to have gotten over its WCU problem in a major way. The Bears struggled to a 28-25 halftime deficit and 72-64 win over the Catamounts at home, then lost 69-65 in Cullowhee just a couple weeks ago, but whatever ghosts they saw against the five-win SoCon bottom-feeder during the regular season have evidently dissipated. After just thirteen minutes, the Bears led 29-9, and they eventually took a massive 43-25 lead into halftime. Mercer never really stepped on the gas and made this a truly embarrassing affair, but they still romped to a 28-point laugher, tied for the second-biggest SoCon tournament win in the last decade.
Mercer ran through a lot of its bench to rest up for tomorrow's meeting with Furman, which looks much more intriguing than The Citadel's upset bid against Chattanooga (no offence, Bulldogs). Mercer was summarily crushed in both regular-season games, but if this result is any indication, they may have turned a corner in time to make a run at the Paladins. Furman's still a comfortable favourite, but stranger things have happened in the SoCon postseason.
Quarterfinal Predictions
#9 The Citadel 77
#1 Chattanooga 84
While The Citadel's win over ETSU was fairly impressive, it seems likely that a red-hot Chattanooga will simply outclass them and romp to victory. Either Brown or Roche leads a late scoring run to make it somewhat close, but the Mocs take advantage of a struggling, worn-out defence in the end to reach the semifinals. Still, it's a good sign for the Bulldogs going forward that they can beat teams like ETSU, and maybe compete with a team on the level of Chattanooga.
#7 Mercer 63
#2 Furman 58
I'm going to go bold and say Mercer has found the spark that eluded them during a three-game losing streak to end the regular season. Before that point, the Bears were as good as any team in the middle of the pack, most of whom got a good shot in at the Paladins late in the season. Furman holds a narrow lead most of the way, but SoCon Defensive Player of the Year Jalen Slawson fouls out late and Mercer's offence surges just enough to escape with a major upset.