February 26, 2022
For one last time in a dramatic regular season, we're looking ahead to a dramatic Saturday slate of SoCon action. Chaos continues to abound in the standings for one more day, but after these four games and the ETSU-UNCG match on Sunday, we'll have our matchups for the conference tournament in Asheville, which starts next Friday. Yesterday, we looked at how the seeding scenarios could play out depending on who wins—but how are these games actually going to go? Let's take a quick look at a critical season-ending schedule.
All times are EST.
Furman (-8.5) at The Citadel
1:00 PM (ESPN+)
The Citadel (12-16, 6-11, 3 GB of last bye) may be second-to-last in the standings right now, but they've shown slight signs of life since losing their first game against Furman 102-83 at the start of February. The Bulldogs dealt Samford their only loss in the last ten games and nearly added another just a few days ago, while also picking up road wins over VMI and Mercer. Even with their relatively-improved form and home court advantage against the rival Paladins, though, an upset will be tough.
Furman (19-11, 11-6, 2 GA) scored a whopping 63 points in the first half when these two met 23 days ago, but their form since then has been lacking to say the least. The Paladins, who at that point led the conference, have since gone 2-4 and dropped games against wholly unimpressive UNCG and ETSU squads. Their last three games (wins over WCU and Wofford, a tightly-contested loss to surging Samford) have been an improvement, but there's reason to be skeptical that they'll dispatch The Citadel without at least a little drama. The conference title may be out of reach, but they're still playing for second overall, and if the Bulldogs stun them, they'll be watching Samford-Chattanooga anxiously.
Samford at Chattanooga (-8.5)
4:00 PM (ESPN+)
It's criminal that this game isn't on national television, although the crowded Saturday slate makes it rather inevitable. It's also criminal that Samford (20-9, 10-7, 1 GA) is such a big underdog, although the game being at Chattanooga makes it more understandable. The Bulldogs are 7-3 against the spread during the 9-1 streak that has lifted them to third in the conference table, and what's more, they beat a full-strength Mocs team earlier this month despite a 31-point performance by David Jean-Baptiste. Coming off a great win over Furman, it's hard to bet on Samford's hot streak cooling off before they hit tournament play.
Speaking of Jean-Baptiste, he's one of five seniors who will be recognised by Chattanooga (23-7, 13-4, 4 GA), whose graduating class earned the conference regular-season title earlier this week. That's not to say there's nothing to play for, though, because this game could also serve as the de facto decider for SoCon Player of the Year honours. Chattanooga's Malachi Smith has been the favourite for a while and leads the league in scoring, but Samford's Ques Glover has been incredible down the stretch and has caught Smith down the stretch in most major categories. If one of the two has a career day and leads his team to victory, you have to figure he'll be a shoo-in for the prestigious title next week, which Samford has never won in the SoCon and which Chattanooga hasn't won since 1997.
Mercer at Wofford (-8.5)
7:00 PM (ESPN+)
When it comes down to it, this game is effectively a play-in for the final undecided bye in the SoCon Tournament (although the winner won't necessarily be the six seed). Mercer (15-15, 8-9, 1 GB) has ended up in this dire situation as a result of an absolutely dreadful week, in which they've lost to the conference's two worst teams in Western Carolina and The Citadel. Those results have left them a game behind the logjam at 9-8, but their path out is still feasible enough.
If the Bears can find a way to win in Spartanburg, it'll be Wofford (17-12, 9-8, 0 GA) that ends up playing next Friday, regardless of results elsewhere. The Terriers have looked solid in their last few games, going on a 4-2 run with their only losses coming at Samford and Furman by tight margins. That being said, Mercer did win the first game in this series directly preceding that stretch, winning 67-62 at home despite a mere seven-point performance from Felipe Haase (14.9 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 3.1 APG for the season). The Bears are a decisive underdog in this one, but an upset is certainly a possibility in the most important game of the final weekend.
VMI (-4.5) at Western Carolina
7:00 PM (ESPN+)
The whole middle of the SoCon has struggled to find an identity this year, but VMI (16-13, 9-8, 0 GA) is perhaps the best poster-child for the group. Since the calendar ticked over to 2022, they've had some really great results: beating Furman 76-67 on home court; winning four straight in the early days of February; and stunning Chattanooga on the road just a week ago. They've also had some complete duds: a three-loss streak immediately following the Furman win against ETSU, UNCG, and Mercer; a close call against a miserable WCU team in Lexington; and a 1-3 stretch in which that Chattanooga win looks like a bewildering outlier.
Most of the questions about who's real and who's not won't be answered until the tournament (and some won't be answered even then), but hopefully we'll at least get a better picture of VMI with this visit to Western Carolina (10-20, 4-13, 5 GB). The Catamounts have been far less confusing, with a 2-11 record since a stunning win over Chattanooga (still no idea where that particular performance came from, though). That being said, WCU did still a win over Mercer last Saturday, so it's not a given that they'll go down quietly, particularly in their final game of the season at Ramsey Center. Nevertheless, if you're looking for SoCon basketball tonight, the Mercer-Wofford showdown is probably a better use of your time.