March 4, 2022
Today, our week of SoCon Tournament previews comes to an end with a look at the quarterfinal between UNC-Greensboro and Samford, and we look at some quarterfinal predictions ahead of today's opening-round games. (Be sure to go back to the Monday and Tuesday previews and read up on these games if you haven't already!)
Quarterfinals
#6 UNC-Greensboro vs #3 Samford
8:30 PM Saturday (ESPN+)
Result at UNC-Greensboro: UNCG 61, SAM 58 (January 22)
Result at Samford: SAM 55, UNCG 49 (February 19)
Perhaps the biggest way in which UNC-Greensboro (17-13, 9-9, #6) is an outlier in the SoCon midfield is that, simply put, they don't tend to be defined by hot or cold streaks. Their game-to-game performance is all over the place, a fact which is easy to capture by looking at Torvik's all-encompassing game scores. Let's run down some examples of the Spartans' confusing play, shall we? In November, they barely escaped a horrible Green Bay (game score of 11), then lost to mediocre UMass (33) and FIU (25) teams in back-to-back overtime outings. Following a non-D1 match, they promptly delivered a win over Vermont (78), which would immediately win 15 of its next 16 (the loss coming to an excellent Providence team). The Spartans followed that up with a very solid win over Elon (80)—only to go to Tennessee and score 36 points, resulting in a whopping 3 for their game score. Fast-forward to SoCon play, where they nearly beat Furman (53) and dominated VMI on the road (94), then two games later could be found losing to The Citadel (40) and falling completely flat against Mercer (8). UNCG would later drop outings against Wofford (13) and VMI (14) in ugly fashion, then turn around and beat Furman on the road (95), following it up with dominant wins over WCU (95) and The Citadel (86) for their best three-game run of the year. Then they went home and got run off the court by Mercer again (10), went on the road and upset eventual conference champion Chattanooga (89) and went to Samford and failed to score fifty points (16).
If you're having trouble making sense of this, welcome to the club. With most teams in the SoCon, we can at least say they're dangerous when hot and disastrous when not, but it's hard to feel we can trust UNC-Greensboro to play remotely similarly for two games in a row. They ended the season with a dispiriting loss to East Tennessee State, which in theory doesn't set them up well for an underdog rematch with a Samford team that beat them two weeks ago, but it doesn't seem likely to matter what happened last time the Spartans played. In this case, that's a good thing, because they need a clean slate following a closing stretch that was more bad than good (though, as ever, in an unpredictable distribution). It's been a confusing year for the first Mike Jones squad in Greensboro after Wes Miller departed for Cincinnati, but there's definitely potential to end the year on an upswing, especially considering how much upside UNCG has flashed at times.
Let's run through the secondary pieces of the UNC-Greensboro offence quickly, because I'd like to spend a bit of time going over their top starter. Bas Leyte uses his towering 6'10" to haul in 5.9 rebounds per game and force his way to the basket, with considerable success. Twins Keyshaun and Kobe Langley complement his skillset, both 6'1" juniors who contribute with steals and shooting from long range. Kaleb Hunter is the closest thing to a grizzled veteran on a roster with only one underclassman; he's played five seasons here and has the all-around skillset to match. Dante Treacy is the wild card, as he contributed standard fare for a low-level starter across pretty much the whole season, but suddenly shot the lights out from all distances and scored 24 in the second-to-last game of the season against WCU. For a team almost exclusively composed of seniors and juniors, it's far from as organised as you'd hope, but it's not the worst recipe for an upset, as UNCG has shown.
But De'Monte Buckingham, who shoots decently up close (60.2%) and brilliantly from three (43.5%), is the key piece for this team, and he's gone a long way to reach this point. He started out his career at Richmond in 2016, playing two seasons there before heading to Cal State Bakersfield and sitting out the 2018-19 season. A regular starter for the Spiders, Buckingham slowly faded into a more minor piece with the Roadrunners, but his graduate transfer to UNC-Greensboro for the last season of his career has paid major dividends. At the end of a six-season gauntlet encompassing three schools and four conferences, he's also got his best shot at being part of a conference champion, and of all the stories in this tournament, that might be the best if it comes to fruition.
Samford (20-10, 10-8, #3), thank goodness, is actually something of a known quantity, so we don't have to dive as deep into figuring out whether they're any good or not. Of course, that being said, their 9-2 finish has it doubters, most notably the metrics that suspect close-game luck played a major role. The Bulldogs rank third in KenPom's luck stat, and in their hot streak, they've won their games by 14, 10, 8, 5 (in overtime), 4, 1 (in overtime), 6, 2, and 8. Whatever the case, this run has buoyed them from last to third down the stretch, which does put them in an excellent position for the tournament. Not only do they get a first-round matchup with one of the conference's more average teams, they also get the side of the bracket with a more beatable Furman team, as opposed to a Chattanooga that's finally hitting its stride again.
If you follow SoCon basketball in any regard, you know that sophomore Ques Glover has broken out as one of the best players in the league, and he's taken another step up to lead Samford in this run. How long it can last in the postseason is a matter of debate, but the role he's taken on this team has been a major stabilising factor after a dismal 1-6 start to conference play. He records an assist on a whopping 33.9% of offensive plays, comfortably leading the league by three percentage points, but despite handling the ball so often, he avoids turnovers as well as any other major contributor. And, of course, he shoots well himself, particularly on the mid-range shots of which he's fond (48.3% on 180 attempts, the most in the SoCon by 45 and the most on Samford by 136).
There is a team that operates around Glover, of course, and its biggest keys are Jermaine Marshall and Logan Dye, who both take a lot of shots in the paint; Marshall adds more value with free throws and Dye adds more by not shooting as many threes as Marshall, who attempts 2.6 per game and is pretty awful at them. The long-distance shots are better left to Jaden Campbell, who comfortably leads the team with 131 attempts from beyond the arc. The Bulldogs' starting five doesn't really have a consistent final member to round it out: Quinn Richey shoots well from three, but plays too infrequently, while Cooper Kaifes has yet to show the upside he demonstrated at Loyola-Chicago and Wesley Cardet Jr hasn't looked like the lone player on the roster with a noteworthy recruiting pedigree, which he is. It's almost the same situation as UNC-Greensboro, with lots of potentially interesting pieces but not a lot of clarity on how they fit together.
Quarterfinal Predictions
#5 VMI 78
#4 Wofford 68
I could see this breaking a lot of different ways; this game could swing pretty significantly with a few poorly-timed turnovers by either team. But I'm guessing that VMI's deep roster proves enough to power them over the Terriers despite struggling defensively, and they pull away early in the second half to build a lead that hovers around ten points for the rest of the game.
#6 UNC-Greensboro 57
#3 Samford 59
The Spartans absolutely have the capability to upset anyone in this tournament, which makes them a fairly intimidating first-round draw. But Samford knows how to play in close games and manage an upset threat better than anybody (having been on the other end of plenty themselves), and they hold a narrow lead right up until the end of regulation, when UNC-Greensboro ties it up and Ques Glover hits some bizarre fading-away shot to beat the buzzer.