The SoCon Lowdown: Previewing Keydets vs Terriers, plus the end of a long Chattanooga drought
March 3, 2022
After taking deep dives on the two first-round games, today and tomorrow we'll go over two of the quarterfinals. We'll also take a look at the results of conference awards voting, including tight races for SoCon Freshman, Coach, and Player of the Year. Just one day remains before the tournament tips off in Asheville!
Quarterfinals
#5 VMI vs #4 Wofford
2:30 PM Saturday (ESPN+)
Result at Wofford: VMI 80, WOFF 73 (December 29)
Result at VMI: WOFF 83, VMI 72 (February 23)
VMI (16-14, 9-9, #5) is one of those teams in the middle of the SoCon that clearly has a chance to do something great—they went on the road and beat Chattanooga less than two weeks ago, which is nothing to sniff it—but has to overcome a rocky late stretch. In the Keydets' case, they came off that win over the Mocs at 9-7 and with a pretty good chance to snatch the three seed. But they dropped a home date with Wofford, their quarterfinal opponent, and suffered a humiliating loss at Western Carolina in the season finale, crash-landing in fifth and blowing a chance at their first winning SoCon season since they joined in 2014-15. Nevertheless, this is clearly a pretty solid team, and their performance has somewhat vindicated VMI's belief in seventh-year HC Dan Earl, who lost 14 or more conference games in his first five seasons here.
A familiar theme among these mid-tier teams is great offence and terrible defence, and VMI exemplifies that most of all. They really are incredible when they have the ball, ranking 35th in Torvik's adjusted efficiency and 16th in effective field goal percentage. But they're 326th in defensive efficiency and a horrific 348th in turnover rate forced, which tends to lead to opponents having a lot of possessions and doing a lot with them. Perhaps the most glaring problem, though, is that VMI lives and dies by the three; only Eastern Kentucky shoots more per game in all of Division 1. The SoCon has several teams that fit that definition—WCU, Furman, and The Citadel are all in the top-ten of threes attempted per game—but VMI and Furman were able to make those threes fall this year where WCU and The Citadel weren't. Little surprise that in the win over Chattanooga, the Keydets outshot the Mocs 14-32 to 9-26 from beyond the arc.
The leader of this fearsome group is first-team all-conference star Jake Stephens, who has the remarkable distinction of leading all major SoCon players in both three-point percentage and two-point percentage. Alas, his defensive liability held him back in the Player of the Year chase and contributed to VMI's problem on the back end, but he's still quite possibly the most exciting player in the conference this side of Samford. Starting guards Trey Bonham and Kamdyn Curfman filled more of a workhorse role, putting up fairly pedestrian numbers (better twos by Bonham and better threes by Curfman) as a result of their heavy usage. Sean Conway filled out the rotation as a solid short-range shooter, but perhaps the most interesting player on the Keydets was one Honor Huff. A 5'10" freshman guard, Huff managed to break into the starting lineup despite being the shortest player on the roster, and he's excelled. With great two-point shooting, reliable free throws, and a solid long-range game, he's a younger, more volatile Stephens who has the potential to break out and become a game's star without warning. When VMI upset Chattanooga in mid-January, his 22 points filled in for an off day from Stephens in the win. If he has a hot tournament, the Keydets are a team to watch out for.
Wofford (18-12, 10-8, #4) is the high seed and beat VMI very recently, so they're ostensibly the favourite, but the wealth of talent they're facing is certainly imposing. The Terriers kind of fit the good-offence-bad-defence mold as well, at least judging by their effective field goal percentage (30th on offence, 312th on defence), but their overall numbers are actually fairly even thanks to their brilliant offensive rebounding, which pulls in 22.3 misses per game—tenth in D1. Wofford has a lot of height, particularly in team leader BJ Mack, who pulls down an offensive rebound on 10.1% of possessions. He's also one of the best shooters in the league from three (42.7%) and from two (57.9%), which makes him a fitting contrast to Stephens. Max Klesmit and Isaiah Bigelow mirror Bonham and Curfman, and Ryan Larson is a longer-range edition of Conway. That leaves sophomore Max Klesmit as the Terriers' version of Huff, a role he fills well. Like Huff, he's the youngest member of the starting rotation (and is a major outlier in offensive rebounding as a result), but he has talent from all ranges, particularly on long-range two-point shooting, and is always a threat to have a career day and singlehandedly carry the team to victory. The key to winning this game for the Terriers, beyond having Klesmit match Huff, is creating additional possessions and maximising the use they can make of them. If they can take five or ten more shots than VMI, they'll be well on their way to the semifinals.
Congratulations are in order for Chattanooga sophomore Malachi Smith, who earned the coaches' and media's Player of the Year award this season. It's the first POTY award for a Chattanooga player since Johnny Taylor took it home in 1996-97, and it's a well-deserved award in a close battle with Ques Glover and Jake Stephens. It's also worth noting that Smith and Stephens tied for the conference lead with four Player of the Week nominations, the most in a single SoCon season since Steph Curry's eight in 2008-09.
There weren't many surprises in the final voting, though several close races were finally decided. Jason Roche narrowly beat out Honor Huff for Freshman of the Year, in a chase that sets up the future of the conference for some exciting battles; meanwhile, Lamont Paris of Chattanooga took home the coaches' COTY title, while Samford's Bucky McMillan was named to the honour by the media. Both have led teams from the middle and back of the SoCon to the top and high middle, respectively, and both are more than willing representatives. The clearest decision was Defensive Player of the Year Jalen Slawson, who dominated the statistical leaderboards on the back end and secured Furman's first DPOY award.