The SoCon Lowdown: Down the stretch they come
Plus: WCU's surge, Wofford's stumble, and VMI's landmark win
After a major shakeup in the situation lately, things stabilized last week. The three conference frontrunners—Furman, UNCG, and Samford—went 6-0, winning by an average of 15.5 points. Each 10-2, they’re now four games clear of the rest of the conference. The chase for third place is unlikely to feature much drama this year.
Fortunately, there’s still plenty of drama in the final third of the conference slate. For that top trio, finishing first is absolutely vital; if higher seeds advance in the tournament, the #1 seed will draw a team with a current record of 6-6 or worse, while the others will be pitted against each other. The remaining games between those three teams (UNCG at Samford on Feb. 15 and Furman at Samford on Feb. 25) will likely decide the final standings.
That’s the big race to watch, of course, but there’s more action further back. The hunt for the five seed is key, as it’s the last that wouldn’t meet a top-three team in the quarterfinals. And, of course, the six seed is the last to avoid a play-in game. Both rankings are anything but clear: WCU is 6-6, Wofford, Mercer, and ETSU are 5-7, and The Citadel and Chattanooga are 4-8. The final standings are anyone’s guess as we enter the final month of the regular season.
Furman is probably in the best position to avoid an upset out of the top three. Before their season-ending visit to Samford, they’ve got two more road trips to the SoCon’s worst (VMI) and second-worst (The Citadel) teams. WCU, ETSU, and Mercer will all pose a bit more of a challenge in Greenville, but Torvik doesn’t project the Paladins for so much as a one-score win until they head to Pete Hanna Center. If they keep playing at the level they’ve reached recently, they can put the pressure on UNCG and Samford to keep up. But even with that favorable late schedule, the season could easily hinge on their February 25 meeting with the Bulldogs.
The Spartans’ missed opportunity to beat Furman at home for a season sweep will still sting, but they bounced back well this week, beating Mercer and The Citadel on the road by 20 points apiece. Home games against ETSU and Wofford this week should provide a further confidence boost, which they’ll need as they enter a treacherous final two weeks. The visit to Samford looms large, as does a trip later that week to Chattanooga (which might have Jake Stephens back by then). The season-ending trip to ETSU is a win on paper, but it wouldn’t be unthinkable for UNCG to trip at the finish line. The possibility of a loss elsewhere only makes it more important to pull an upset at Samford.
The Bulldogs are in the worst position of the top three when it comes to the possibility of an upset from the lower ranks. Their visit to Mercer tomorrow is tricky, and another to Chattanooga near the end of the year carries the aforementioned risk of catching the Mocs with a healthy Stephens. But it might not matter that much, because even if Samford suffers a third loss, they’re in the unique position of facing both Furman and UNCG at home—meaning they’re able to ensure at least a tie for first, even with an upset elsewhere. The Bulldogs’ home court might be the best in the SoCon, and Torvik favors them by a fraction of a point in both monumental matchups.
A game of separation feels like nothing in this scramble for fourth, especially considering that WCU will be an underdog four more times this season—road games against Wofford, Furman, Mercer, and UNCG—and only a narrow favorite at home against ETSU. But the Catamounts deserve their flowers for, at least for now, clawing their way into this spot despite being written off in the preseason as a likely play-in candidate. They’re one of just two teams to beat the Paladins, and they’ve put up a good fight against Samford in both of their meetings; they’ll need more spirited performances like that to hold fourth, but it’s not out of the question.
A lot of teams in the middle of the SoCon seem to possess a tendency to go cold for certain games. WCU, for instance, lost 72-47 to UNCG and was swept by The Citadel; Wofford took 25- and 13-point losses following their upset of Samford; Mercer lost by over 25 points in two of their first four conference games. These inexplicable no-shows are a particular problem for ETSU, which looks good often but falls flat with some regularity. This week, they delivered a decisive win over Wofford, then went to Samford and suffered an equally debilitating defeat at the Bulldogs’ hands. The 73-62 final doesn’t show that the Buccaneers trailed by double digits for nearly the entire second half, a margin that swelled to 24 points before ETSU cut into the lead with a meaningless late run. The Bucs have won by 14, 12, 16, and 25 points in conference play…and are otherwise 1-7.
So much for Wofford being the best-positioned upstart to steal a tournament bid. The Terriers came off their best week of the season—wins over Chattanooga and Samford, a brief surge to fourth with a 5-5 conference record—with their worst. In 80 minutes of play, Wofford was only within single digits for 11:44, letting both ETSU and Furman ahead by that margin within five minutes. Defense seems like the critical element if the Terriers want to contend in Asheville: they’ve allowed over 75 points in six straight games, and Torvik considers their opponent-adjusted defensive rating well below average in six of their last eight games. It could all still come together, but Wofford is running out of time to definitively right the ship.
Mercer caught UNCG at a bad time, but they overcame a 69-49 loss well to demolish VMI following the Keydets’ first conference win. Since starting 0-5 in the SoCon, the Bears are 5-2 and have put themselves in position to avoid the play-in games. The stretch run will be tough, though, with games against Samford and Furman as well as visits to Chattanooga and Wofford. Mercer’s playing well enough to steal a win or two and land in a solid spot for the postseason, though. Their opportunity to upset the Bulldogs at home this week could be key—if they can pull off this win, they’d stake a serious claim to a potential run in the conference tournament.
The Mocs’ upset win over rival ETSU offered brief optimism, but a week down the road, we’re back to asking when Stephens will return. Chattanooga is 1-4 without him, posting four of their five sub-20 Torvik game scores this season, and have lost six of seven overall. The defending champs are in freefall, and while this week’s homestand against The Citadel and Mercer offers a chance to stop the bleeding, they direly need their top playmaker available as soon as possible. The goal remains to bring Stephens back in time for the tournament, at least, but staying out of the first round is growing unlikely if he doesn’t play in the rest of the regular season.
It feels as if it’s taken ages just for The Citadel to stop spinning its wheels and set about rebuilding properly. Ed Conroy is starting to reconstruct the roster with a look to the future, but for now, the starting lineup is still senior-heavy and going nowhere. It’s hard to see glimpses of what the Bulldogs could become right now, and with a four-game losing streak that includes defeats by Chicago State and VMI, they’re not likely to do much of anything this season. Check back next year…hopefully.
It feels almost patronizing to celebrate VMI’s first conference win—snapping a 12-game losing streak and 0-10 start to SoCon play by beating the second-worst team in the league—but in a season like this, you’ve got to celebrate the little victories. The Keydets had led The Citadel most of the way in their first meeting before falling behind in a 60-52 loss, but they trailed for a significant part of this game. VMI cut into a double-digit deficit early in the second half and went ahead down the stretch, though they couldn’t put the Bulldogs away until Tony Felder and Sean Conway buried dagger threes in the final 1:07 to seal a heartening win. Sure, it doesn’t matter to the standings at all, but it’s certainly meaningful for the beleaguered Keydets.
Around the former SoCon…
Alabama moved to 10-0 in the SEC with a pair of wins, including a record-setting 101-44 demolition of Vanderbilt.
Auburn had a solid week, picking up a decisive win over Georgia and taking Tennessee down to the wire in a 46-43 slugfest.
Duke picked up key wins over in-state rivals Wake Forest and North Carolina, though they were dealt a shocking blowout loss by Miami.
After starting D1 play 0-19, Elon is suddenly unbeatable, extending their winning streak to three by beating Stony Brook and Northeastern this week.
Florida stunned rival Tennessee with a 67-54 home win, putting themselves back in position to make the tournament with their best showing of the season.
Kentucky continued a quietly impressive run, with six wins in their last seven games including those over Ole Miss and Florida this week.
Maryland stayed undefeated at home in Big Ten play with a key victory over Indiana, rising to 16-7 with their fourth straight win.
Following a dire 1-8 stretch, Mississippi State has played their way back into the tournament conversation, winning three straight (including a win over Mizzou this week).
NC State hasn’t lost back-to-back games all season and rose to 19-5 this week, finally earning a spot in the AP Poll at #22.
Tulane completed a season sweep of Memphis, improving to 8-2 in their last ten and 15-7 overall as they make a long-shot postseason push.
Virginia Tech outduelled highly-ranked Virginia in a must-have rivalry win, climbing closer to the bubble with their third win in four games.
Nearby, West Virginia also continued a résumé-rescuing run, rolling past Oklahoma ahead of three straight games against top-15 teams.
Furman’s Matthew Smith and Megan Marvin earned SoCon Athlete of the Month honors in men’s and women’s track, with 800m performances ranking 23rd and 9th in NCAA history for their respective sports. Samford was selected by coaches as the preseason favorite in softball behind sophomore McKenzie Newcomb, the preseason pitcher of the year. Georgia Southern’s rifle team used a school-record score of 4666 to defeat UAB and complete their second straight undefeated season in conference play.