March 18, 2022
25 years and two days ago, 14-seed Chattanooga knocked off 6-seed Illinois in the second round of the NCAA tournament to reach their first-ever Sweet Sixteen. It was a fantastic moment for the Mocs, who also shocked 3-seed Georgia in the opening round, in the process jumpstarting a revival for the SoCon that would culminate in Davidson's Elite Eight run behind Steph Curry over a decade later. There have been bigger wins in the conference's long, twisting history, but not many.
Just past the quadranscentennial (it's a real word) of that incredible run, Chattanooga finds itself finding a rather less momentous chance to again end Illinois's tournament dreams. The days of Kruger and Mack McCarthy, who left the Mocs after that season for VCU, are long gone, but the Illini do still occupy the same place in the sport hierarchy, more or less. They generally held 4 and 5 seeds in the late 1990s and early 2000s, and it seems they've settled back into that rhythm nowadays. What's still yet to come—although admittedly, Illinois has only been back to form for a couple years—is postseason success. In their first appearance under Brad Underwood last season, the top-seeded Illini fell to Loyola-Chicago in the second round. This year, as a four seed coming off a lukewarm finish to the season, they're looking to make it at least a bit further.
But while Illinois has generally remained either an upper-tier contender or a scrabbling backmarker in the Big Ten, Chattanooga has had a more dramatic quarter-century, as has their conference. Gone are the days of top SoCon teams landing in 14 and 15 seeds, thanks in no small part to the Mocs' program-defining run. Despite a mid-season swoon and a nailbiting championship game, Chattanooga earned a 13 seed this season and as a result faces a fairly beatable opponent. It would still be a major upset—Illinois is favoured by eight points—but the Mocs clearly have a chance to snap their postseason drought. On ESPN's tournament challenge, over 15% of brackets pick Chattanooga to win in the first round, and 5% have them advancing to the Sweet Sixteen. There's a lot on the line for this team, but this time around, a win over Illinois doesn't represent a turning point for the future of their program and their conference.
It would be nice, though. If you're the Mocs, it's pretty obvious where an upset bid begins and ends: with Malachi Smith and Kofi Cockburn. The former won the SoCon Player of the Year award and led the Mocs with 20.1 points per game, capping his season with an average of 18.7 points and 7.7 rebounds per game during their conference tournament run. It's been a while since anyone added their name to a list of SoCon postseason greats that includes Jerry West, Keith Jennings, and Steph Curry, but Smith is easily capable of making his place in history tonight.
Smith's opposite number is first-team all-American Cockburn, who has emerged as the best player on Illinois now that Ayo Dosunmu is off to the Chicago Bulls. The Mocs could certainly go blow-for-blow with the rest of the Illini roster, but their star is a different proposition. Towering at seven feet tall and weighing in at 285 pounds, Cockburn averages 21.1 points and 10.6 rebounds per game and reached the Illinois career record for double-doubles this season. He's not just a big; he defines the term, reshaping the flow of any game around his presence in the post. The Big Ten couldn't handle him often, and now it's up to Chattanooga to attempt to do what some of the nation's most physical team's were unable to.
Enter Silvio de Sousa. The highly-touted recruit never did anything more memorable at Kansas than wielding a fold-up chair in a postgame brawl, but he's settled down at Chattanooga and emerged as a bonafide star, albeit only the third-best player on a ramshackle superteam. With 11.1 points and 7.0 rebounds per game, the 6-foot-9 senior brings height and physicality that the Mocs otherwise lack. He only averages 20 minutes per game on the season, but proved key down the stretch and should see plenty of time against the bigger, tougher Illini.
Cockburn's supporting cast is a match for Chattanooga's unusual experience: Trent Frazier, Alfonso Plummer, Da'Monte Williams, and Jacob Grandison are on the court most often, and all are seniors. If Cockburn struggles with foul trouble or an injury—though not an off day, which he simply doesn't have—Plummer could be the go-to guy, having taken over a pair of late-season games against Ohio State and Michigan with back-to-back 26-point showings. Frazier, meanwhile, offers 155 games of experience and entering this game with double-digit points in six of his last seven appearances. If Plummer goes cold from three, expect to see Grandison take control as the only other starter shooting better than .400 from beyond the arc. Williams completes the main quintet and represents the kind of player that has been plentiful in the SoCon this year: an experienced player whose leadership and ability to shift roles has made him an understated foundational piece for the Illini during their recent rise.
Chattanooga has David Jean-Baptiste to fill that role, the right-hand man who previously led the Mocs and remains one of their most effective all-around shooters. While not as certain a threat to dominate as Smith, he can turn on a dime and has a short memory that's emblematic of his position on the team. His forty-foot jumper to win the SoCon tournament at the end of a forgettable 4-for-16, 10-point performance was the best possible version of the way he's played all year. Senior Darius Banks and junior AJ Caldwell round out the lineup, offering a bit more size and decent numbers from any range.
To be honest, it's not easy to see Chattanooga winning this game, though it's hardly impossible. The Illini have a physical mismatch that has doomed many an otherwise-talented Cinderella hopeful in the past, and as good as Smith and Jean-Baptiste could be, Cockburn can match them blow-for-blow if star power holds sway down the stretch. I wouldn't count the Mocs out, but Illinois is a tough matchup for a 13-seed, and they likely won't look past a dangerous first-round opponent.
NCAA Tournament Prediction
TNT, 6:50 PM EDT
#4 Illinois 68
#13 Chattanooga 66
Elsewhere in the SoCon, VMI faces UNC-Wilmington (12:00 PM) and UNC-Greensboro takes on Boston (5:00 PM) in the first round of the CBI. Wofford was expected to play in the first round of The Basketball Classic, but their opponent forfeited due to COVID-19, so they'll face USC-Upstate in the second round instead (7:00 PM Friday). It's also worth noting that Furman, which nearly made the NCAA tournament and finished second in the SoCon but didn't make the NIT bracket, has opted out of the postseason this year.