Seventh Day Adventure: TCU, USC Put Playoff Bids on the Line in Championship Week
There are those who would argue that, for teams already in the College Football Playoff committee's top four, conference championship games should only matter as a chance to jostle for seeding in the CFP. As things stand, No. 3 TCU and No. 4 USC are largely undisputed as better candidates for the final bracket than No. 5 Ohio State, but each has to risk a loss this week because of their superior regular season. The Trojans are almost certainly out if they lose, and precedents such as 2015 Iowa and 2017 Wisconsin would suggest the Horned Frogs need a win as well. There's a case to be made that TCU and USC not being locked in, regardless of their results this week, is an unfair punishment for doing better than the Buckeyes up to this point.
On the upside, Ohio State's ability to pass a falling Big 12 or Pac-12 runner-up does lend more excitement to a championship week that would otherwise be a formality. It's practically impossible to draw up a scenario where No. 1 Georgia or No. 2 Michigan doesn't make the field, and both are heavy favorites in their conference title games anyway. As for TCU and USC, both are facing rematches that gain a lot more intrigue with the 11-1 Buckeyes in play: the Horned Frogs face Kansas State, whom they trailed 28-10 before coming back to win 38-28, while the Trojans take on Utah, which outlasted them in a 43-42 thriller. With such a limited group of contenders, neither game is an absolute must-win, but each is a chance to settle any debate and secure a guaranteed CFP spot.
Beyond playoff seeding, there's plenty to play for in this week's slate. Clemson is up against North Carolina for the ACC title, an honor the Tar Heels haven't held since 1980, and UCF heads to Tulane in an AAC Championship Game that will all but decide the Group of 5's top bowl bid. Elsewhere, Jon Sumrall has Troy in position for a Sun Belt title in his debut year, while Tim Albin has Ohio with a chance at the MAC title in his second season. Even the awkward games scheduled to fill out the calendar—Akron at Buffalo and Valparaiso at New Mexico State—are worth following as last-ditch bowl chances for the home teams. And, of course, this all goes without mentioning the FCS playoffs, where eight teams have now played their way into matchups with the top eight. Bowl season still lies ahead, but the last full Saturday slate of the season promises to be fascinating.