Michigan already knows how well Sherrone Moore will lead the way
Rarely does such an opportune coaching trial fall into a program's lap, and the Wolverines have taken full advantage with a fantastic hire.
Note: rankings for this series are set by the final 2023 rankings from TERSE, a D1 college football metric designed to imitate human rankings.
This is not a story about Michigan’s 2023 season.
It’s important to state that up front, because ultimately, it’s impossible to talk about Sherrone Moore’s promotion to head coach without touching on last year, in so many ways. The Wolverines’ national championship campaign still hangs over them, in ways good (having firmly proven they have no ceiling) and bad (still battling an NCAA investigation into rule-breaking behavior) and a bit of both (having parted ways with Jim Harbaugh and moved on to Moore). But the fact is, as compelling as all those narratives are on a surface level…much of what happened last year isn’t all that relevant to Michigan’s future. For the most part, this is a new team with a new coach that’ll have to find its own way back to the grandest stages in the sport.
What does matter about 2023 is the role Moore played in Michigan’s success. This is a unique situation in many ways, not least of which is the fact that it’s hard to imagine this internal promotion would’ve happened in any other circumstances. Largely as a byproduct of NCAA-issued suspensions, the Wolverines managed to pull off a full coaching-trial side quest during their run to the championship, turning Moore from a fringe contender to replace Harbaugh during his previous NFL flirtations to the obvious choice upon his actual departure. The then-OC evidently impressed more in his game as acting HC than Jesse Minter or the duo of Jay Harbaugh and Mike Hart, and when Michigan unexpectedly needed a substitute again for a much more consequential stretch later on, Moore was naturally tapped to step in.
Those three games handily demonstrated his capabilities as a head coach, to the extent that he probably would’ve been a candidate for other jobs soon had Harbaugh not made his exit soon thereafter. On short notice, facing a three-game stretch that had been figured as decisive for Michigan’s season from the moment their schedule released, he led wins at #9 Penn State and against #2 Ohio State to effectively punch the Wolverines’ playoff ticket.
Say what you will about the allegations leveled against Michigan, charges concerning a sign-stealing scandal of uncertain breadth and depth that might be unconscionable cheating and might be widespread among UM’s competitors. Whatever advantages the Wolverines may have held, it’s difficult to dispute that Moore’s capabilities as a coach were thoroughly proven in those key victories. Against Penn State, he worked around a good-but-inefficient performance from quarterback J.J. McCarthy (7/8, 60 yards) and rightfully leaned on the brilliance of running back Blake Corum (145 yards, 5.6 Y/C). Then, against Ohio State, he masterfully worked around a similar McCarthy performance (16/20, 148 yards) and a lack of big plays from the rushing corps (Corum and Donovan Edwards: 119 yards, 3.7 Y/C) to run 60 plays from scrimmage and hold the ball for 33:28. After a critical, lengthy Buckeyes drive tied the game at 17-17 late in the third quarter, Michigan held the ball for 88.3% of the remaining 20 minutes and change while pulling away to win. That’s what great coaching can do.
That kind of performance would be impressive under any circumstances—if Moore was coaching that well a couple years into his tenure at a high-level G5 or low-level P5, for example, it’d be good reason for Michigan to consider him. But arguably more important is everything he did that led to those games, the behind-the-scenes work that positioned him to take over and deliver those wins on demand. Amid a season that started with a multi-game HC suspension, ended with said HC taking off to the NFL, and saw that sign-stealing drama begin to unfold in between, Moore was an anchor for a team that desperately needed some stability.
The two articles in this series that came out earlier this weekend, on interim coaches Nate Dreiling and Tim Skipper, touch on something that’s relevant here too, even though Moore is a full-time hire. Really, it’s come up quite often this offseason—from Jedd Fisch harnessing chaos at Washington to Trent Bray taking over amid immense uncertainty at Oregon State, Mike Elko looking to capitalize on the opportunity in front of Texas A&M to Sean Lewis mastering the coaching carousel to reach San Diego State, all the way back to Nevada appointing Jeff Choate with an eye towards steadying the ship. With a power conference collapsing, a new playoff system debuting, and coaches from some of the biggest programs in the sport departing, there’s no more relevant concept in college football than stability. It’s always been a business underneath all the pomp and circumstance of amateurism, but now more than ever, managing risk and reward—being a good CEO, as you’ll often hear of coaches, in a quite literal sense here—is a key responsibility for any new coach.
That attribute is what puts Moore over the edge, from an intriguing internal candidate to a slam-dunk hire that Michigan confirmed just two days after Harbaugh left. He strikes the balance between a figure beloved by his roster, a talented in-game playcaller, and a leader of men with captivating confidence in the direction of his program. For the reigning national champion, one of the best teams in the sport, there could be no better coach to guide them into the uncertain, promising future.
The Last Five Years
The shift in Michigan’s success after the start of the sign-stealing operation, which the NCAA investigation suggests began in 2021, wasn’t as dramatic as their outlier 2020 season makes it look here. Still, the Wolverines obviously took a significant step up over the last three years; while it’s debatable how much that should be credited to factors beyond their rule-breaking behavior, it’s hard to deny the operation probably had some effect. UM beat Ohio State in three straight years for the first time since 1995-97 and finished top-three in three straight years for the first time…ever, culminating in their first national championship since 1997. Now the coach who led most of that success is gone, the clandestine activity that helped enable it has been shut down, and Michigan has to find out where they stand in a new-look Big Ten while putting the pieces together.
On the one hand, the Wolverines’ 41% returns are among the bottom ten in FBS, a mark that’s actually lower than the gutted Washington team which went from national runners-up to unranked in the preseason AP Poll. On the other hand, Michigan is always going to be well-equipped to handle significant turnover—a roster with 47 former blue-chip recruits is nothing to sneeze at—and, of course, the path to the playoff no longer involves an effective elimination game in Rivalry Week, which takes a bit of the pressure off. The schedule isn’t exactly forgiving, even by post-realignment P2 standards; UM draws Oregon and Ohio State in conference play and has a Week 2 date with Texas. Still, win at least one of those games and take care of business elsewhere, and they should be firmly in the playoff field.
The Next Five Years
It’s a weird era for college football. It always is, but now even moreso than usual, given just how much is changing all at once. For teams with coaching transitions this offseason, there’s even more turbulence to deal with; for a team like Michigan, with all the unique ups and downs they’ve experienced over the last twelve months, you’ve really gotta hope whoever’s in charge knows what they’re doing.
Moore is here, now, for many reasons, but key among them is the fact that his self-assurance is so magnetic, that he not only knows what he’s doing but makes it clear that he’s in full control. It’s a welcome change from Harbaugh, who was closer to the typical high-strung average of capriciousness and volatility among top FBS coaches. If nothing else, Michigan probably won’t have to contend with Moore perusing the NFL job market at the start of every offseason, a bit of a relief given how year-round the college football calendar has become.
There’s a lot more to Moore’s profile than just stability, of course. He’s clearly proven himself as a coach, and everyone from administrators to staff members to players have been eager to sing his praises. He’d be a great hire from any program, to any program—but his experience at Michigan, and with leading them through adversity to greater glory, makes him the best possible coach, right here, and right now.
Thank you for reading the 2024 edition of The New Guy. This is the fifth year I’ve covered the college football offseason with a team previews series of some sort, and it’s hard to believe it’s been both that long and that short a time since my first forays into the field of sportswriting. Whether you’ve been following from the start or you’ve just read my work for the first time, I’m glad and grateful that you’re here.
Here’s to another five years!