Note: rankings for this series are set by TERSE, a D1 college football metric designed to imitate human rankings. These will shift as the offseason goes on, with more transfer data becoming available over time.
All right, I’ll say it; we’re all thinking it. Why on earth did Deion pick Colorado?
It wouldn’t necessarily be accurate to say he had his pick of programs, but after going 27-6 at Jackson State and leading the Tigers to the brink of an HBCU national title, there had to be more attractive options. It might not be underselling it to say that USF, which showed interest during the cycle, would have been a better situation to step into. Georgia Tech, which also showed interest, certainly would have been. We’ll never know if Auburn reached out, but you have to believe Deion would’ve been in with a shot if he’d expressed a desire to take to the plains.
Instead, this. A man who has spent the vast majority of his life—youth and college in Florida, a pro career largely in Atlanta and Dallas, coaching in Texas and Mississippi—in the South, now clear across the country to tackle what may be the very worst team in FBS. For one of the few candidates in the 2022 coaching carousel who more or less had their pick of open positions, Colorado seems an odd fit. It makes sense for the Buffaloes, at least, but given that Deion had his pick of numerous open jobs, it’s something worth examining.
The cynical explanation, to which there is obviously some truth, is this: he likes to be the center of attention. At Jackson State, Deion very much billed himself as the savior for a team which already had a storied past. National media ate up the story of a legendary former player stepping into a supposedly-unremarkable program and turning it into an FCS powerhouse. A job like Georgia Tech or Auburn, with other superpowers in direct competition and a base of high-profile players required to build a contender, simply doesn’t afford that opportunity to that extent JSU did.
It’s not hard to see how Colorado, which has a rich tradition in football but hasn’t been a national contender recently enough for many to recall, would appeal to Deion if he wants to repeat that little sleight of hand. Look no further than the words used by The Athletic to describe an appearance by Deion on ESPN’s pregame show for the national championship game: “unprecedented exposure for Colorado’s program”. Never mind that the Buffaloes have won a national championship—this man simply being present for the game is enough to reframe the narrative and turn him into their knight in shining armor.
We can be cynical about this, and we probably should, especially given Deion’s past. But he also talks a lot about how he cares about and wants to connect to recruits, and there are some reasons to think that’s not just a façade. There will always be lingering questions in the back of everyone’s heads (especially Colorado AD Rick George’s) about whether Deion is actually going to build something that lasts, like he claimed he would do at Jackson State. And, of course, there will be questions about whether he’s actually going to stay at all, or whether he’ll bolt again when a better opportunity presents itself. This is by no means a stable, or even healthy, relationship. But for now, for the desperate Buffaloes and for a calculating head coach, it’s a fit.
The Last Five Years
The foundation laid before last season hasn’t entirely fallen apart, but there’s not much to build on. Colorado seemed to have a knack under Mike MacIntyre, Mel Tucker, and Karl Dorrell for starting hot every season, but it never really paid off. 3-0, 5-0, 3-1, and 4-0 starts from 2017 to 2020 gave way to all of one bowl bid, and that only came with an assist from COVID to cut the season short before the Buffaloes could get a real losing streak going. In 2021, an early 30-0 loss to Minnesota shattered any hopes of another strong first half, and the bottom fell out in 2022.
2022 and 2023
The Buffaloes won one game last year, and it was against 4-8 California, at home, during a six-game losing streak for the Bears, and by one touchdown. Otherwise, they lost ten games by over 20 points, only coming close to a win in a home loss to Arizona State—a 3-9 team with an interim coach that lost to Eastern Michigan. With the exception of that 20-13 game against California, Colorado’s best defensive showing of the season was giving up 38 points to TCU. Which doesn’t sound so bad…if you ignore that the Horned Frogs’ eventual Heisman finalist was riding the bench the whole way.
In short, 2022 was not good for Colorado. The good news, to an extent, is that Deion’s first team is not going to look much like the smoking crater left by last season. Following in the footsteps of USC coach Lincoln Riley, whose career path offers more than a few parallels worth exploring, he’s making heavy use of the transfer portal in a bid for a quick turnaround. Shedeur Sanders (Deion’s son) and former #1 recruit Travis Hunter followed from Jackson State, but they’re far from the only additions. The list of obvious starters alone is daunting: Sanders, Hunter, Kavosiey Smoke (Kentucky), Myles Slusher (Arkansas), Jordan Domineck (Arkansas), Mark Vassett (Louisville), Jimmy Horn Jr. (USF), Cam’Ron Silmon-Craig (Jackson State), Seydou Traore (Arkansas State), Savion Washington (Kent State), Shane Cokes (Dartmouth), and Isaiah Jatta (Snow College).
There’s no doubt that the Buffaloes have a talented transfer class—at least as good as the one Riley brought in for 2022, if not better. The question now is the same one that was asked of USC last year: is a massive roster overhaul like this really a reasonable way to fix an ailing program? The Trojans made it work, but barely, winning four one-score games and running an unsustainable turnover margin in the first half of the season. Ole Miss, the most notable transfer-laden program (and guinea pig) aside from USC, floundered down the stretch after using a weak schedule to start 7-1. There are positive signs for the transfer turnaround method, but the jury remains firmly out.
The Next Five Years
Theoretically, Colorado is set up to do very well going forward. The staff is excellent, highlighted by offensive coordinator Sean Lewis—who resigned from Kent State to take this job. The roster is already improving quickly and, even if it doesn’t all click in 2023, will add plenty of talent in the near future thanks to Deion’s prowess on the recruiting trail. Five years down the road, you could see this program gunning for the Pac-12 title and a CFP autobid.
But what if Deion leaves? It’s going to be a constant talking point as long as he’s at Colorado, whether for a year or for a decade. If this rosy situation turns into results, and there’s little reason to think it won’t, southern P5 teams will come calling. We’ve detailed the reasons those positions might not be as attractive as one would expect, but would Deion say no to any of the SEC’s Big Six? (Well, aside from Florida.) What about to Clemson or to his alma mater, Florida State? Most of these possible openings don’t seem imminent, but it’s likelier than not that one will be available in the next two or three years.
Deion has his exit strategy, if it comes to that. Colorado needs to make sure they have one of their own. It’s certainly possible to parlay a potentially-brief tenure into more sustained success; in any case, the Buffaloes can use this to dig themselves out of the “possibly last in FBS” hole, which is a start. But if they play their cards right, they can have their cake and eat it too—rebuild this historic program into the titan that it once was, while letting one of football’s most mercurial figures take his drama elsewhere. Not a bad deal, if you can make it stick.